The Saturday Model · Record
Saturday Model
Saturday Model

Our Record

2026 season · 193 graded picks

112–77–4
Wins · Losses · On the number
+25.4u
Model return · at −110
50–28–1
Over/Under
62–49–3
Sides
59.3%
Win rate
+0.5 pts
Closing line value · beat the close 95 of 193
+3 pts
Final value · vs posted · 193 grades
Week by week
Week 06–460%+6.0u
Week 125–17–259.5%+7.8u
Week 214–863.6%+4.3u
Week 314–1058.3%+1.9u
Week 417–15–153.1%+0.8u
Week 57–370%+3.0u
Week 68–753.3%-1.0u
Week 710–952.6%-1.6u
Week 811–4–173.3%+4.3u

Record · Win rate · Model units at −110

Model units

Cumulative return

Cumulative model units starts at 0 and ends at +25.4u at −110

Cumulative model units starts at 0 and ends at +25.4u at −110
Week by week

Week 0 +6.0u · Week 1 +7.8u · Week 2 +4.3u · Week 3 +1.9u · Week 4 +0.8u · Week 5 +3.0u · Week 6 -1.0u · Week 7 -1.6u · Week 8 +4.3u

Weekly model units
Week 0 +6.0uWeek 1 +7.8uWeek 2 +4.3uWeek 3 +1.9uWeek 4 +0.8uWeek 5 +3.0uWeek 6 -1.0uWeek 7 -1.6uWeek 8 +4.3u
Sides and totals

Sides +4.3u · Over/Under +21.1u

Sides +4.3u · Over/Under +21.1u
Sides +4.3uOver/Under +21.1u
Grade-time percent vs results

Grade-time percent vs results, n=189. Small sample. Not a reliability claim. 53–56%: mean 55.3%, results 34–21, n=55; 56–59%: mean 57.1%, results 43–29, n=72; 59–62%: mean 60.1%, results 12–11, n=23; >62%: mean 66.1%, results 23–16, n=39

Grade-time percent versus results
Percent bandMean percentResultsn
53–56%55.3%34–2155
56–59%57.1%43–2972
59–62%60.1%12–1123
>62%66.1%23–1639

Small sample. n=189. Not a reliability claim.

2026
112–77–4
Overall
50–28–1
Over/Under
62–49–3
Sides
How grades work
100.9u won · 75.5u lost · at −110
Week 0 +6.0u

Results land about 3 pts on the right side of the number. Wins by 10, losses by 10.

Week 0 uses the locked Week 1 percent. Later weeks freeze at post. Losses stay on the page. Grades use our posted number: the open for Early picks, 60 minutes before kickoff for Patient picks. A win pays 100 to 110. Kickoff times in Eastern. Closing line value is our posted number against the closing number at the same book, in points. Plus means the market moved our way after we posted. Final value is how far the score landed from our posted number, in points. Plus means we covered.

Published posts

2026 Week 0 Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗
2026 Week 1 Original picks ↗ Original picks ↗ Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Results ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗ Weekly recap
2026 Week 2 Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗ Weekly recap
2026 Week 3 Original picks ↗
2026 Week 4 Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗
2026 Week 5 Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗ Quote ↗
2026 Week 6 Original picks ↗ Results ↗
2026 Week 7 Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗
2026 Week 8 Original picks ↗

Published picks

193 picks across 166 games. Every win and loss stays on the record.

Original posts show the published selection. Pending final lines are recorded on the site.

All graded picks
166 games · ET

CLV = close vs posted. Final = score vs posted.

Sat, Oct 24

Fri, Oct 23

Thu, Oct 22

Wed, Oct 21

Tue, Oct 20

Sat, Oct 17

Fri, Oct 16

Thu, Oct 15

Wed, Oct 14

Sat, Oct 10

Fri, Oct 9

Thu, Oct 8

Sat, Oct 3

Thu, Oct 1

Sat, Sep 26

Fri, Sep 25

Thu, Sep 24

Sat, Sep 19

Fri, Sep 18

Sat, Sep 12

Mon, Sep 7

Sun, Sep 6

Sat, Sep 5

Fri, Sep 4

Thu, Sep 3

Sat, Aug 29

>62% 2u · 59-62 1.5u · 56-59 1u · 53-56 0.5u · sides cap 1u

Visit the graveyard of dead ideas